Trenyx Momentum vs the S&P 500 (SPY) and the Nasdaq-100 (QQQ), 2006-01-03 → 2026-05-29, $100k start. Log scale — equal vertical distance is an equal percentage move, the honest way to read a compounding curve.
This is a survivorship-free backtest: the S&P 500 membership is reconstructed point-in-time, so delisted and acquired companies are included on the dates they actually traded — no hindsight cherry-picking of the winners. Prices are split-adjusted and exclude dividends across all three lines (the strategy holds price-return too, so it's apples-to-apples). All three run the full 2006–2026 window, so the 2008 crash is included for every line.
| Series | Window | End value | Total return | CAGR | Max drawdown | 2008 drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trenyx Momentum (B) | 2006–2026 | $1,666,869 | +1567% | 14.8% | -27.5% | -20.7% |
| SPY (S&P 500) | 2006–2026 | $597,384 | +497% | 9.2% | -56.5% | -56.5% |
| QQQ (Nasdaq-100) | 2006–2026 | $1,787,243 | +1687% | 15.2% | -53.6% | -53.6% |
Over this full ~20-year window — including the 2008 crash — Trenyx Momentum compounded at 14.8% a year, versus 9.2% for the S&P 500. That's a real edge, but read it honestly:
• Plan for high-single to low-double-digit returns, not the headline. A backtested CAGR is the best case on clean history; live results carry slippage, taxes, and luck. Treat 14.8% as a ceiling, not a promise — some years will be flat or red.
• The edge is downside, not upside. The strategy's real job is holding its 2008 loss to −20.7% while the market fell −56.5% — losing less in the bad years is what compounds. Even QQQ, which matched it on return over this window (15.2% vs 14.8%), got there through a −53.6% crater in 2008 — B's whole point is the same finish with half the drawdown.
• You will sit through drawdowns. Even on this record the strategy fell ~27.5% peak-to-trough at its worst. If that would make you sell, the strategy can't work for you.
Past performance does not predict future results. This is a hypothetical paper portfolio — no orders are placed, no funds are managed.